Online Shopping: 2015 to 2018 Predictive Analysis - Essay Sample

Introduction

The statistics I will use are inferential since, the data presented will be used to predict the characteristic of the buying population. From the data collected in the two quarters of 2015, it can be estimated that the preference for online shopping will increase over time. The difference in the two quarters can present a percentage of the change from which, we can conclusively determine the projection of the year 2018. From the two sets data, i.e., the 2015 and the 2018 projection, the predetermined percentage can be used to predict the behavioral characteristics of the group in the preceding years. The statistics in the discussion are relevant to the questions since, the presented data shows the shift in the market, from the traditional shopping patterns to online shopping, an issue that should trigger the organizational management to adapt, or implement changes, specifically on the buying methods, trust and market segmentation.

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The inferential method used is multivariate regression. The technique is typically used to determine the degree to which more than one independent variable and more than one dependent variable related linearly. The method is primarily used to predetermine the behavior of the dependent variable related to changes in the independent variable. In the provided statistics, the independent variable is variables comprises of population, the number of companies venturing online, and the technology advancement, particularly the delivery system and cybersecurity. The dependent variables will consist of the items offered, the advertisement methods, and the level of income of the buyers. The independent variables will be the predictors, while the dependent variables will the response. For example, an increase in the online buyers (population) will increase the demand of online products (dependent). This allows the management (independent) to focus on the increasing the commodities online and creating awareness. Enhanced security system (independent) means more customers will trust the system causing a surge in sales.

E-commerce is increasingly becoming an acceptable method of trade. According to the Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce, the United States had an estimated $89.1 billion in online sales, within the fourth quarter of the year 2015 (Akhter, 2016). This represented a 2.1 percent increase from the third quarter of the year 2015. By the year 2018, these sales were projected to have reached $482 billion, representing nine percent of all the United States sales. Further, the report indicated that by the year 2015, the number of digital buyers had an increase of over 171 million (Akhter, 2016). About 73 percent of the buyer uses both debit cards and credit as their preferred choice of payment. Trust is an issue that is present in the digital venders, and it's a challenge the organization in the online business has to deal with (Akhter, 2016).

Numerous strategic planning factors influence the continued competitiveness of e-commerce. These strategic plans are fostered by realizing the fact that online presence introduces many competitive gains over traditional methods (Hristoski et al., 2017). They include developing systems that are easy to use, highly accessible and availability among the target market, enriching features and functionality, improving effectiveness, efficiency, and reliable payment methods including developing the real-time link between the e-commerce front desk and the back end (Hristoski et al., 2017). As a result of these strategic planning factors, the industry has witnessed tremendous growth, with 2016 witnessing a growth of about 23.7 percent compared to the previous year making its approximately 8.7 percent of the total global market (Hristoski et al., 2017).

References

Akhter, F. (2016). Cultural Dimensions of Behaviors Towards E-Commerce in a Developing Country Context. International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, 7(4). https://doi.org/10.14569/ijacsa.2016.070413

Hristoski, I., Kostoska, O., Kotevski, Z., & Dimovski, T. (2017). Factors Affecting the Competitiveness of e-Commerce Firms: A Critical Appraisal. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314311907_Factors_Affecting_the_Competitiveness_of_e-Commerce_Firms_A_Critical_Appraisal