Research Paper on Cybercrime Trends and Forecasts

Introduction

As more and more businesses move online, so do criminals wishing to defraud or destroy such businesses' infrastructure. Cybercrime is a growing threat to organizations and customers, who are increasingly utilizing online technique to run their businesses and lives. Notably, with the advent of mobile computing and an anticipated 46 trillion connected devices in use by 2021, this will become more and more common (Juniper Research, 2017). This research seeks to present the latest observable cybercrime trends and forecasts into the future.

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Cyber Crime Trends

While the accurate route of cybercriminals accessing computer systems continue to evolve depending on the precise nature of the operating systems, network architecture and the motivations of the cybercriminals, the basic route remains the same. This trend indicates that to stay current, consumer cybersecurity needs to focus away from antivirus and move to other types of cybercrime prevention. In particular, this is true for clients sharing data between various IoT devices (Juniper Research, 2017). For instance, Ransomware has obtained self-spreading features that can enable hackers to raise ransom amounts and raise their chances if receiving them. This opportunity attracted state-sponsored hackers too although their motivation is not financial. For example, on 12 May 2017, the WannaCry ransomware, mainly associated with the pro-government North Korean Lazarus group, appeared Group-IB. (2017).

Attacks on industrial facilities, remote access gained to control terminals of Industrial Control Systems (ICS), and detection of vulnerabilities are being reported more and more often. The first malware program that managed to affect physical processes and put equipment out of operation was Stuxnet virus utilized by the Equation Group (Group-IB, 2017). Additionally, state-sponsored hackers pose a new threat to banks with the purposes of gathering intelligence information and disrupting the performance of target banks. For example, in February 2016, an attempt to steal 1 billion USD was reported by the Bangladesh Bank by the Lazarus group (Group-IB, 2017). Finally, the number of threats to cryptocurrency and blockchain projects has increased along with the Bitcoin exchange rate.

Cyber Crime Forecasts

Regarding the tools and attacks on crucial infrastructure, the scale of the outbreak, the speed of infection and the damage done to the victims of state-sponsored hackers will most certainly lead to the appearance of imitators and successors and new attacks from traditional, financially motivated cybercrime. Also, the future holds more scripted cyber-attacks and ready-made simple tools that can gain control over corporate domains automatically. The availability of these tools will lead to a significant growth of attacks on the corporate industry. Similarly, attacks on banks will have a more dangerous threat posed by the state-sponsored hackers who will be focused on monitoring cash flows, disrupting the performance of banks' internal infrastructure, and collecting compromising information about banks' customers (Group-IB, 2017). Thus, if developers of banking and POS Trojans for personal computers incorporate a function for self-spreading in corporate networks and automatic search for computers involved in online banking, it will result in a major growth of successful cyber attacks both on business and private bank accounts.

Additionally, targeted attacks on cryptocurrency exchanges will be performed by both financially motivated hackers and by state-sponsored attackers. Following an easier money-laundering and less regulatory oversight, some groups specializing in targeted attacks on banks and payment systems will switch their attention to cryptocurrency exchanges. In particular, Android Trojans will enable hackers to carry out much more efficient attacks on cryptocurrency users (Group-IB, 2017). Phishing against cryptocurrency service will be the major problem for the users. Anything related to cryptocurrency will become the main target for hackers specializing in web-based attacks. Consequently, numerous fraudsters will bring back already inactive fraudulent schemes related to asset management, investments, and pyramid schemes.

References

Juniper Research. (2017). CYBERCRIME & THE INTERNET OF THREATS 2017. Retrieved from http://www.paymentscardsandmobile.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Cybercrime-and-the-Internet-of-Threats-2017.pdf

Group-IB. (2017). HIGH-TECH CRIME TRENDS 2017.