Research Paper on The Role of Race in Voting Behavior Nate Silvers Claim

Introduction

The United States of America elections are held for government officials. The government officials are elected at different levels which are the federal, state and at the local level. At the highest level which is the federal level, the president who is the head of state is elected through an electoral college by the people of each state. Different factors may affect the choice of voting. To an extent, socioeconomic status may influence how one chooses to vote or even chooses not to vote. The research paper seeks to analyze Nate silver's claims regarding the role that race plays in determining the voting behavior of people.

Is your time best spent reading someone else’s essay? Get a 100% original essay FROM A CERTIFIED WRITER!

Save 25%

It turned out that Nate Silver correctly predicted the presidential race. It was a surprise to many. Most of the people attacked the renowned statistician. Mostly, the attack came from the Republicans. The media predicted that the presidential race would be a tie or else there would be adrift in favor of Obam (O'Hara, 2012). Surprisingly, Nate Silver predicted the outcome of every state correctly. It seemed like dark magic that people had never experienced before. The model he had used to predict the elections had proved to be true.

Presidential elections in America are a national matter. However, voting is done at the state level. Each state votes for their president of choice. The winning candidate in all the states becomes the president as noted earlier. That is the reason that Nate Silver had to compare races in the different states. Nate Silver used statistics to explain racism in elections. He performed a General Social Survey.

Moreover, he went ahead to directly ask whether racism plays a role in determining whom to vote for. Feedback from the people was then used to predict his magic. For example, in Louisiana about one person for every five which voters responded positively that race was a factor in their choice not to vote for Obama. In comparison to New York and California, the pollster is about four percent.

The big question was whether racism was predictable. To answer this question, Silver looked at the correlation between racism and independent variables. The independent variables looked include; income, religious education, age, urban: rural, race and mobility (TED-Ed, 2013). He observed a strong correlation between education and racism. The lower level of schooling translated to a higher level of racial based voting. Additionally, urban: rural states showed a similar pattern. The General Social Survey looked at data for people whose neighbors were from a different race. Silver noted more Republicans in the monoracial neighborhoods, but there was no significant difference. However, he observed that a question regarding intermarriages in the monoracial neighborhoods got different dramatic results.

Silver suggested a practical solution to this problem. He suggested that the creation of interracial neighborhoods would be an amicable solution in addressing racism. He continues to suggest that it would call for reengineering the cities. The reason for this suggestion is the belief that the cities that had been designed in the 1970s might have played a significant role in making America more conservative. Moreover, he proposes a mixed university program. As a result, it would enhance cultural exchange.

Conclusion

In summary, Silver's conclusion that race determines voting behavior is substantial. He proves his claims using the General Social Survey Sampling Method that considers variables like income, religious education, age, urban: rural, race and mobility. He found a strong correlation between education, Rural: urban and racism. Also, he suggests interracial neighborhoods and mixed university program to tackle racism.

References

O'Hara, B. (2012, November 08). How did Nate Silver predict the US election? | Bob O'Hara. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/science/grrlscientist/2012/nov/08/nate-sliver-predict-us-electionTED-Ed. (2013, March 02). Retrieved February 12, 2019, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0i_M3Bd_7Ao