Research Paper: Older Population to Double by 2050: 900 Million in 2015 to 1.4 Billion by 2030

Introduction

Research has shown that the proportion of the world's population aged above 60 years is expected to double by the year 2050 or earlier. According to Musick and Chaloupka (2017), the current population of older adults is estimated at 11% of the total world's population, translating to about 900 million people aged more than 60 years. Research has particularly anticipated that this population of aged people will increase from the 900 million registered in 2015 to 1.4 billion by 2030. The number is further projected to increase to 2.1 billion by 2050 and further increase to 3.2 billion by 2100.

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The increase in life expectancy has been attributed to several factors. Some of these factors include a significant decline in fertility rates supported by the successes in reducing infant mortality. Apart from a reduction in infant mortality, advancement in research and technology has enabled a significant reduction in other mortalities such as maternal mortality as well as mortality in older people. Although the results of advancement in health research such as the reduction in mortality is a step that has been celebrated, the effects have since begun to concern policymakers.

Concerns for policymakers with the ageing population remain attached to the functionality of various sectors that support the economy. Some of the concerns have been involving income growth in most developed countries. Most developed countries have been at the forefront to benefit from the health research that has been pivotal in minimizing mortality. As a result, these countries have had significantly large populations of older individuals. For such countries, the biggest concern remains the challenge realized with growing income. Another concern for such countries has also been the increasing demand to meet the needs of the elderly. The challenge in meeting the needs of the elderly is, however, anticipated to be higher in middle and low-income countries. In a bid to deal with the issue of an ageing population, affected countries will need to create social and economic institutions that would provide needs to these people. For such a population, some of the needs that require to be met include income security, adequate healthcare and food security.

Policymakers are also faced with the problem of defining older people, with the population increasingly getting older by generation. For an individual to benefit from State services set aside for older people, it is required that they meet all the definitions of an older person. In the past, older people were defined as those that were significantly aged, with some referring to them as the third age or the fourth age (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2017). Third age and fourth age are a fair way to define older people as it means that those who have three or four generations behind them-those having great-grandchildren and those having great-great-grandchildren were considered aged. However, being old can be said to come at different times for different people. An individual can have great-grandchildren and still be considered old while another individual might only be having grandchildren and already be considered old. For policymakers, however, the dilemma of defining the term "old" would be a compelling challenge, especially now that the population is getting considerably old in general. For the policymakers, the definition of the term dictates a lot of affairs. For instance, the definition will dictate the age with which one qualifies to be admitted to a nursing home for the elderly.

In general, the rate of ageing for the world's population poses a threat to the macroeconomic and financial stability of each affected country. From the financial perspective, ageing population implies additional government expenditure into aspects such as pension and subsidized healthcare as well as social benefit programs for the aged. While the phenomenon is seen to have the potential of affecting the overall quality of life, its main immediate threat lies in the deterioration of the economy as the government will be forced to divert public funds from other facilities like education and infrastructure development to cater for social programs for the elderly (Maestas, Mullen and Powell, 2016).

Policy Proposal

Since the most immediate concern for any government with an ageing population is economical, this paper proposes a policy to deal with monetary reasons (Maestas et al., 2016). For this paper the financially-driven policy the focus will be on work. Work is not only pivotal for an individual's well-being but the whole country in general. While it is plausible that the elderly require to be excused from work, it is also important to note that light work can be helpful for them. This policy aims to introduce two different engagements of work; the first engagement involves paid work to the elder while the second engagement involves voluntary work. Paid work is beneficial as it contributes to the individual's social interactions, and offers opportunities for professional growth even at such advanced ages. The second engagement-voluntary work-will aim mostly at the individuals' health in general. As a result of engaging the elderly in both paid and unpaid work, it minimized the need for extra cost to deal with the entire population (Hamdy and Yusuf, 2017). The first problem the policy will have solved will be the need for diverting funds into programs for the elderly. Once the aged population get engaged in light paid work, they will be able to fund their needs. Through the same prospect, the policy will have tackled the need for the government to divert funds for the healthcare of the aged population. The voluntary work that they will have been engaged in would help to maintain their health and minimize the need for massive funds from the government.

Enactment of the Policy

For the policy to work, policymakers will be required to factor in a few elements related to ageing. There should first be a gradual retirement scheme that should encourage the elderly to remain in the labour force longer than they are currently (Coale and Hoover, 2015). Maintaining them in the labour force is one of the most viable ways of sustaining fiscal pressure

The second consideration in enacting this policy would require the promotion of volunteer work, care and artistic work among the aged. This consideration is supposed to cater for aged individuals that would be unable to take advantage of the retirement scheme.

Challenge for Policy Enactment

The policy enactment should, however, be kept far from politics as political contact may cause it not to serve the purpose for which it is meant (Coale and Hoover, 2015). In a country with political bodies that are vastly indifferent like the US, it is important that the policy is not attached to either political outfit. Aligning it with the Democratic Party would deprive Republican older people to miss out on the benefits, and the contrast is true.

References

Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2017). Secular stagnation? The effect of ageing on economic growth in the age of automation. American Economic Review, 107(5), 174-79.

Coale, A. J., & Hoover, E. M. (2015). Population growth and economic development (Vol. 2319). Princeton University Press.

Hamdy, M. S., & Yusuf, M. M. (2017). A Review on Long Term Care Expenditure Models for Aging Population. Advanced Science Letters, 23(5), 4977-4980.

Maestas, N., Mullen, K. J., & Powell, D. (2016). The effect of population ageing on economic growth, the labour force and productivity (No. w22452). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Musick, J. A., & Chaloupka, M. Y. (2017). Age, growth, and population dynamics. In The Biology of Sea Turtles, Volume I (pp. 233-276). CRC Press.