Essay Example on Floods in Indonesia: Devastation, Power Outage and More in 2020

Introduction

The floods in Jakarta Indonesia in December 2019 resulted from heavy rains, thus submerging cars and homes, as well as making the roads impassable. It also led to the power outage in more areas, more than 700 of the areas in the Jakarta region. However, the excessive rainfall has prolonged to 2020 and has been affecting various parts of Java Island and Sumatra and Southern Malaysia as well. From the report that was released by the Indonesian National Board for Disaster Management on December 31, 2019, 856 people were displaced from their homes, 200 and more houses were flooded seven deaths were confirmed (El Nino / La Nina Update, 2020). Therefore, the Regional Disaster Management Agency had to participate in conducting of emergencies, where two public tents for the refugees were used. The increase in floods increased these numbers drastically. Within ten days, as of January 10, 2020, this number had increased to 61 participants with 22, 504 displaced, and 2000 houses flooded. However, the Red Cross in Indonesia had been distributing hygiene kits as well as food items within the affected areas.

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El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) refers to periodic variations of sea surface temperatures and winds that take place irregularly in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The ENSO events in Indonesia influence rainfall; the events can lead to a decrease in rainfall levels and bring about periods of drought (Jan van Oldenborgh et al., 2015). During the dry season, low amounts of rain have been linked to ENSO events. ESNO event started taking place a long time ago, dating thousands of years ago. Some of the previous ENSO events that took place recently occurred in 2002-03, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2009-10, 2014-16, and 2018-19. The events usually take place irregularly.

During the flooding, there was a significant interaction between the atmosphere and the Pacific Ocean, which led to the ENSO. IISNO stands for El Nino-Southern Oscillation. It is the pattern of the recurring climate that involved the changes in the water temperatures in Eastern tropical and the central Pacific Ocean. One period of ESNO ranges typically from 3-7 years, and also makes the surface waters to cool by a rage of 1C - 3C as compared to the normal. The ESNO (oscillating warming), affected the distribution of rainfall in the tropic and influenced the weather in Indonesia strongly. Nevertheless, this phenomenon was generally identified using the see service temperature (SSTs).

The anomalies Service temperatures in SSTs were effective in reducing the vertically and horizontally movement of air masses since the seas in Indonesia are cooler, and in the Indian Ocean, this leads to a positive occurrence of El Nino. The motion of the wind on the other and was moving from a low-temperature area to a high-temperature region, hence carrying mass precipitation of air. In addition, the air masses in the circulation walker over the region in Indonesia were downward. In contrast, the circulation of the walker over the pacific and Indian ocean was convectional (upward). A cooling SSTs was also occurring over the Pacific Ocean and warming over the see in Indonesia, this led to a horizontal wind motion, from the ocean to the Indonesian regions, hence carrying air masses with full of vapor. Besides, ESNO had a significant effect on seasonal and extreme participation over Indonesia. The precipitation data in Indonesia is an effective factor in determining the impact of El Nino. And this can be measured through the three factors; frequency, intensity, and duration. Besides, the progression of El Nino to the equatorial coverage of El Nino to the anti-cyclonic circulations weakens and strengthens. That is according to changes of seasons, as well as their coupling with the regional sea. In return, this has been saving the coverage as well as the moisture. A difference I regional ocean or atmosphere coupling was attributed and was less prominent.

MJO Phase during Jakarta Floods

Indonesia lies within the borders as well as intertropical coverage on both vast oceans from the Eastern and Western sides, which are the Pacific and Indian oceans, respectively. Besides, the surplus solar radiation of the short-wave in the region of the equatorial region led to extreme evaporation. During the El Nino that caused floods in Indonesia in December 2019, there was an intense humidity, which resulted from the variability of high rainfall. In return, this made the condensation to be cloudy and the level of rainfall increased. Collective cloud, on the other hand, was driven by a variation in diurnal heating throughout the land and over the sea, thus producing various thunderstorms as well as in the formation of the squall lines in most of the areas.

The climate change led to the rise of the surface temperature, and the warmer temperatures in the region of equatorial oceans were strengthening the bands of the convectional clouds, thus creating a heavy rainfall, twisters, gusts as well as hail. Besides, the increase in surface temperatures influenced the variability of climate in the region. The Madden- Julian Oscillation mainly contributed to the variation of climate. The MJO is generally considered as the circulation of the West-East, which originates from the Indian Ocean and Vanishes in the Western Pacific. As pointed out by Chang et al. (2016), the MJO is referred to as a concurrent system with 30 to 60 days of oscillation. It is also identified as the massive clouds of cumulonimbus that mostly occur during the March-April transition period (Chang et al., 2005). Also, solar radiation heated the ocean, and this caused higher temperatures at the surface. In return, this contributed to the increase of the convective clouds as well as the temperature gradient, thus making the high rainfall to move towards the east of Indonesia. Since the conditions of the environment in Indonesia were bad, the MJO caused floods. The situation even became worse because the MJO and the signals of La-Nina appeared simultaneously.

The MJO was discovered by Dr. Paul Julian and Dr. Roland Madden I early 1970s, when both were studying pressure patterns and tropical wind. The noticed the regular oscillation in the patterns of winds between Canton and Singapore Island in the equatorial Pacific of the central west. The MJO usually has two phases or parts; the convective (enhanced rainfall) and the suppressed rainfall phase. If the MJO is strong, it often divides the planet into two halves. The two phases also produce opposite changes in the rainfall and clouds (Chang et al., 2005).

During the event, monitoring of the MJO was done using an MJO index. Earlier in March 2019, the signals of the MJO were also detected to spread in Indonesia and the surrounding areas. Since then, a strong signal has been observed and appearing in the form of intense rainfalls over the java, making the whole region of Indonesia to be prone to MJO. However, the humidity has explicitly been attracted to the Java region. Apart from LaNina, the MJO is another factor that contributes to the climate treats, due to its intra seasonally occurrence. The figure below represents the process and phases of the MJO:

Evidence of equatorial waves during floods that occurred in Jakarta

Equatorial waves take place around the equator from the surface of the ocean and atmosphere surrounding; they tend to move away from the equator in latitude and longitude directions. The equatorial waves occur as a result of the force caused by the movement of the earth during its rotation. As the earth rotates, the equatorial waves tend to increase as they move further away from the equator (Equatorial Wave - an overview | Science Direct Topics. 2020). Among the natural disasters occurring in Indonesia, floods take a considerable percentage. The probability of these floods is greatly affected by the changes in weather conditions, especially the equatorial waves. According to Flatau & Flatau (2020), there is a relationship between the equatorial waves and the floods that occurred in Jakarta, Indonesia, on December 31, 2019. The flooding reports from the Indonesian government also show that there is some correlation between the flood that took place and the equatorial waves. The equatorial waves can be Rossby gravity equatorial waves or equatorial Kelvin waves. There is evidence that a relationship exists between the intraseasonal variability phases and equatorial waves. Phases of intraseasonal variability result in convectively coupled waves that take place outside the MJO and lead to precipitations that are severe, resulting in floods.

Rainfall taking place in the tropics is modulated by equatorial waves adding on to the intraseasonal oscillations. The result is precipitation events leading to floods. The presence of the equatorial waves played a role in the flood that took place in Jakarta. The presence of the wet phase of the waves increases the chance of the floods taking place. Equatorial waves such as Rossby gravity waves and Kelvin waves brought about extreme precipitation taking pace and the consequent flooding in Jakarta in Indonesia.

Furthermore, the presence of the equatorial waves taking place in the ocean and the tropical atmosphere has a huge role in climate changes, especially the occurrence of increased rainfall levels and El Nino rain (Flatau, & Flatau 2020). The physical processes taking place that result in equatorial waves also help in the formation of clouds and bring about changes in the direction of winds, some of which will result in bringing rain. Besides, the location of Indonesia makes the equatorial waves to have a role in the Jakarta floods. The country lies surrounded by two oceans Indian and the pacific to its eastern and the western sides. Equatorial waves, especially the equatorial Rossby, are known to modulate rainfall affecting the country of Indonesia (van der Schrier et al., 2017). Equatorial Kelvin waves have also been highly linked with the El Nino as they propagate along the ocean lining.

Whether the modes of variability potentially contribute to the change of the events or not

Indonesia does not have an exhaustive pattern of regional and global trends and does not have a relationship that can like a full implication for the prediction of climate. However, most of the spatio-temporal patterns are associated with the El Nino/ Southern Oscillation (ESNO) phenomenon. Therefore, El Nino/ Southern Oscillation (ESNO) did not play any role in increasing the amount of rainfall. Instead, it reduced the amount of rainfall, since it increases temperatures.

Nevertheless, the occurrence of El Nino/ Southern Oscillation (ESNO) in Indonesia did not prevent excessive flooding. It increased rainfall since the level of the MJO phase was very high (El Nino / La Nina Update, 2020). Precisely, the ENSO is stationary, unlike the MJO that disturbs rainfall, clouds, winds, and pressure. All these factors transverse the nation and return to its initial starting point.

The changes in wind and rainfall make the MJO very important for the range in which climate and weather are extended, thus enhancing more prediction. Apart from influencing rainfall, the MJO can also be used in modulating the strength and timing of monsoon. Therefore, they also influenced the numbers of the tropical cyclones as well as strengths in almost all oceans basins and led to a stream changes, the outbreak of cold air as well as the events of extreme heat events in Indonesia. The MJO was also producing s...