Introduction
Over the last few years Madrid has been embroiled in a bitter conflict with the Catalan government over the latter's attempts to become an independent state. The height of the conflict culminated in a referendum in 2017 seeking to officially break away from Spain. The Madrid government reacted to the referendum vote by sending paramilitary police who launched a crack-down on the protesters and leaders in Catalonia, resulting in more than 800 injuries of the pro-separatist protesters and exiling some leaders of Catalonia (Wildman, 2017). The situation appears to have subsided now but this does not meant that the crisis is fully resolved. Therefore, it can be conjectured that Catalonia would renew its efforts to form a sovereign state. However, the current issues of conflict between the Catalan government and Madrid are deep-seated and complex, highlighting the possibility that the Madrid Government will not allow the Catalans to form their independent government anytime soon.
Catalonia is part of Spain. It forms one of the 17 distinct regions, and it is located in the Northeast part of Spain (Jacobs, 2017; Wildman, 2017). It has a population of 7.5million people. It is a region that produces more than one-fifth of the total output of Spain and therefore acts as a critical region of the country.
Figure 1: Courtesy of BBC. Available at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-20345071
Catalonia is a province with municipalities such as Girona, Barcelona, and Tarragona. The capital city of Catalonia is Barcelona while Madrid is the capital city of Spain (Jacobs, 2017). Although Catalonia is within Spain, its location and socioeconomic factors have been at the heart of the conflict that has put Spain in the international headlines over the recent past.
The current issue is the administrative tussle between Barcelona and Madrid over secession attempts pursued by separatist leaders of Catalonia. On 1st October 2017, Catalonia's pro-independence leaders conducted a pro-independence referendum. It was their expression that the plebiscite was a significant step towards governing themselves as a people. The result of the poll showed that 90% of those who turned up to vote supported the split although there was less than 50% voter turn-out (Wildman, 2017). Although the referendum was the sole event that triggered the crisis, evidence suggests that there several issues that have contributed to the current political situation in Spain. The history of the region, language and other traditions, and economic strength of the region have been responsible for the calls to separate from Spain.
Historically, Catalonia used to be an autonomous area in Spain. It composed of a region of the Iberian Peninsula which is nowadays called Spain and Portugal. The formation of the family between Petronilia and Aragon made Barcelona to develop a dynasty which allowed their son to acquire all the regions that were ruled by the fathers of both Aragon and Catalonia (Wildman, 2017). This condition did not end until King Philip V took over. The succession of Spanish became to an end when Valencia had been defeated in war in 1707. The purpose of the battle of Catalonia in 1714 and finally with Island in 1715 which led to the creation of modern Spain. In literal sense, Catalonia was forced to be part of Spain. First formal Catalan separation was stopped by General Francisco after he had received victory from the Ebro war in 1938. He became the King and was able to control more than 3500 people and expelled others into exile (Gonzalez, 2017; Alexander & Badcock, 2017). This created anti-Spanish sentiments among Catalonians which have been passed from one generation to another. According to Gonzalez (2017), the call for independence became more pronounced in 2010 when a court in Madrid ruled that no law allows for the recognition of Catalonia as a self-governed state from Spain.
Language is also an important factor in the conflict between Madrid and Barcelona. In Catalonia, people speak Catalonia and other local languages while Madrid and the rest of Spain speak Spanish and Madrid insists that Spanish is official language. The Spanish government further established a legislative obstacle to prevent the development of the Catalonian language. The mentioned actions action resulted in the legitimization of Castilian Spanish supremacy as opposed to other local languages (Mortimer, 2017).As such, lack of recognition of the Catalan language and the several attempts made to limit its use have made the Catalans feel that their identify is not being respected by Madrid hence the quest for separation. It is unlikely that Catalans will relent until Catalonia achieves a status the people consider as respectful of their language and traditions.
Economic strength of Catalonia makes the people in the region feel that they can govern themselves. Barcelona is a popular tourist destination due to its rich customs and traditions. Catalonia is the richest province of Spain and contributes the largest share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to the entire Spanish economy. Moreover, in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, many Catalonians were hit hard by the crisis and expressed frustrations that they would be better off without the government in Madrid (Wildman, 2017). With such economic strength, it is probable that the semi-autonomous government in Catalonia is capable of standing on its own in case of secession. Hence, it can be expected that the economic stability of the region would continue to motivate the push for an independent country in the Catalan region.
However, it is improbable that Catalonia would acquire full independence from Spain. This is because such eventualities depend on the resolution of complex issues both in other parts of Europe. For instance, it is improbable that Catalonia would successfully secede because Catalonians are not fully united for this cause; the Madrid government will not allow the region to break-away due its position in the Spanish economy; and the implications of the secession in other parts of the Euro zone.
The lack of full support for independence can be an impediment to the pro-independence efforts. From the political parties to the general public, Catalonians do not speak in unison about leaving Spain. For instance, opinion polls indicate that only 41 percent of Catalans approve independence of Catalonia while just under 50 percent are against breaking away from Spain (Wildman, 2017). Moreover, the largest party in Catalonia, the Conservative Popular party which is led by Spanish Prime Minister is opposed to secession (Siegel, 2017; Alexander and Badcock, 2017). Independence is only supported by Catalonia nationalists and this does not provide adequate political capital necessary to negotiate for the exit from Spain. Thus, lack of political support and a divided citizenry could make secession efforts fruitless.
The Spanish Government may also not allow Catalonia to split from Madrid because it is the most industrialized section of Spain. Notably, it has the highest maritime power than any other municipality on Spain (Wildman, 2017). As Alexander and Badcock (2017), reveal Catalonia is considered one of the wealthiest regions in Spain as it produces 20 % of the national GDP and at the same time Madrid has the highest per capita GDP, and therefore these regions contribute significantly to the economic growth of Spain than other areas such as Basque and Navarre. Spain would consequently not allow secession to continue because it is likely to reduce its economic output by 20% and this is likely to make the current Government unstable economically.
Implications of Catalonia's could reverberate throughout Europe and this may threaten the sovereignty of other states. When the Catalan leaders appealed to the European Union (EU) for assistance in their separatist efforts, the EU responded by informing the Catalan leaders that their situation was an internal matter of Spain and does not fall within the jurisdiction of the EU(BBC, 2018). UE's message was meant to strengthen the sovereignty of Spain and other countries in Europe where some Catalans also live. Moreover, successful secession would trigger secessionist movements in Basque Country and Galicia, two other autonomous regions in Spain that have shown some of indications of seeking independence. As argued Mortimer (2017) argues, Madrid is cautious not to use violence or force against Catalans for fear that Basque Country and Galicia may also erupt into violence, culminating in the disintegration of Spain. Consequently, Madrid would make every effort to keep Catalonia in Spain.
The current conflict can be moderated through negotiation between the two parties. This can only be done when there is respect, appreciation of the grievances of each of the groups involved in the conflict. As argued by Adams (2017), the leadership must be demonstrated from both the Spanish state and the Catalan government. The EU must also be involved to come up with practical solutions that would satisfy the grievances of both sides of the political divide as happened between Ireland and the UK.
Conclusion
The conflict between Madrid and the Catalonia is a complicated affair. Catalonians feel that their cultural, economic and political interests have been variously ignored by Madrid hence the quest for secession. The height of these grievances reached in 2017 when the Catalan leaders held a referendum which was supported by 90 percent of the vote. These efforts are unlikely to yield much progress towards independence as Madrid has shown the resolve to keep Catalonia in Spain as seen in the crackdown of the pro-independence movement. Madrid may also fear that Basque Country and Galicia would follow after Catalonia. The international community, especially the EU, may not entertain separatist ideas as this would cause some European countries to disintegrate as well. However, it is important to recognize that once an idea has got hold of people, it might stay in the minds of these people for generations. Therefore, any conflict resolution method must recognize that Catalonia will leave Spain some day if the grievances of its people are not addressed.
References
Adams, G. (2017, October 26). Spain and Catalonia can find a way forward. Here's what they must do. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/09/spain-catalonia-northern-ireland-gerry-adams-europe-conflict
Catalonia's quarrel with Spain explained. (2018, January 31). Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29478415
Gonzalez, R. (2017, December 27). Catalonia's crisis is just getting started. Retrieved from http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/12/27/catalonias-crisis-is-just-getting-startedSiegel, R. (2017). Conflict continues in Spain between Catalan Government and Madrid. (2017, October 27). Retrieved from https://www.npr.org/2017/10/27/560484102/conflict-continues-in-spain-between-catalan-government-and-madrid
Mortimer, C. (2017). This is why Catalonia wants independence. (2017, November 6). Retrieved from https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/catalan-crisis-why-does-catalonia-want-independence-do-people-really-support-it-spain-latest-a8025836.html
Alexander, H &, Badcock, J. (2017). Why does Catalonia want independence from Spain? (2017). Retrieved from https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/does-catalonia-want-independence-spain/
Wildman, S. (2017, October 2). Why part of Spain is trying to secede? And why the Spanish government cracked down on it. Retrieved from https://www.vox.com/world/2017/10/2/16393956/catalonia-catalan-independence-crackdown-vote-referendum
Catalonia region profile. (2018, June 11). Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-20345071
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