Conservative Party in 2019 Canadian Election: Analysis and Assessment - Essay Sample

Introduction

The paper is a brief piece concerning the upcoming 2019 election in Canada. The examination and analysis of the said election based on the Conservative Party, one of the political party of my support, and it's also competing in the 2019 federal election. The examination of the said political party of my choice tends consider the position where the party fits into the context of the political spectrum. The examination evaluates party's chances being successful as well as providing an assessment of the election and my prediction of the outcome.

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The Political Spectrum of Conservative Party in Canadian Politics

The Conservative Party of Canada sits at the right-wing of the Canadian political spectrum (Elections Canada, n.d.). In Canada, federal political parties align themselves across the political spectrum. Right-wing prefer a society with less reliance on government, like lower taxes and fewer governmental programs. Left-wing parties support government involvement in the lives of its citizens like higher taxes (Elections Canada, n.d.).

The Conservative Party's Convincing Platform and Leader

Andrew Scheer is the most influential and convincing leader in the Conservative Party. The party's platform is as well as compelling to earn my vote. Some of the platform of Conservatives Party among others include;

Child Care. The Conservative pledges to maintain Liberal initiatives by continuing with the Canada Child Benefit Program. The party will also increase social transfer payments by at least three percent yearly, which helps provinces and the territories finance childcare and early learning. Leader Andrew Scheer also promised to make Employment Insurance benefits for new parents tax-free (CBC News, n.d.).

Health Care. The Conservative party have also pledged to increase health transfer payments by at least three percent annually as well uphold other parts of the health accord. They've dismissed Pharmacare, instead of focusing on those citizens not covered provincially or at work. The Conservative party has promised $1.5 billion to buy more healthcare technology enhanced systems like MRI and CT machines to expand eligibility for the disability tax credit.

Education. The Conservative party have promised a boost to the Registered Education Savings Plans, raising contributions from 20% to 30% for every dollar invested up to $2,500 a year, to a maximum of $750 a year (CBC News, n.d.). Andrew Scheer backed away from a tax credit for parents sending children to private-independent schools after critics said it benefited the wealthy (CBC News, n.d.).

Climate Change. According to CBC News, (n.d.), Conservatives say that they are committed to meeting the Paris Agreement target and would axe the Carbon Tax. The party propose replacing a policy taxing heavy emitters with requirements they invest in clean technology or research (CBC News, n.d.). They wants to sign agreements allowing Canada to earn the credit for helping achieve emissions reductions internationally and further launch a green-tech patent tax credit for businesses.

Immigration. Conservative party has not said how many immigrants they would accept each year (CBC News, n.d.). However, Andrew Scheer, the party's leader has stressed the importance of "economic immigration" and prioritize those individuals facing "true persecution." The Conservatives also want to crack down on illegal border crossings. They would instead promote the private sponsorship of refugees and increase refugee screening (CBC News, n.d.).

Chances of Conservative Party Being Successful

Andrew Scheer is the front-runner who likely to unseat Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the upcoming October 2019 Canadian election. Being the most popular candidate currently, the Conservative party, polls say that if the federal election held today, Andrew Scheer would be the prime minister.

According to Coletta, (2019), the victory of Trudeau, the current prime minister in the elected in 2015 promises of progressive policies and "sunny ways," was an international sensation. He sailed through his first years in power, and Canadians are proved to have a history of giving prime ministers ruling majorities a second power mandate. On the contrary, part of this year, his office brought inappropriate pressure against the attorney general in the prosecution of the matter regarding a construction firm from his home province (Coletta, 2019).

Coletta, (2019) states that the controversy has helped to reshape Canada's political conversation. This allegation has given millage to other political parties, particularly those who challenge the prime minister's position on issues regarding climate change and refugees. The controversy has discredited Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party and favored the popularity of the Conservative Party.

The victory of Scheer in the 2017 leadership race provided a blueprint for his federal election campaign since the success made him sell himself as a safe second choice and the (Coletta, 2019). To achieve success in the upcoming election, the Conservative Party is expected to capitalize on this turn of events brought by the controversies affecting the Liberal Party. The advantage will help the party to build momentum as the polls show that the Liberal slide has bottomed out in the race (Coletta, 2019).

Assessment of the Election and the Prediction of the Outcome

The assessment is from June 2017, the first month when Andrew Scheer's elected as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, before the upcoming October 2019 election. The forecast compared to the average of voting intentions. The analysis based on the assumption that Justin Trudeau, the current Prime Minister and the party leader of the Liberal Party, face off with Andrew Scheer of Conservative Party leader, in the upcoming federal election October election.

Taking time factor as a variable into consideration, up to this end, October 2019, the Liberal Party will have spent forty-eight months in the office. NotuUnless Justin Trudeau resigns before the election, the dichotomous variable related to the substitution of the Prime Minister will score zero (Mongrain, 2019). When it comes to the political experience, the current prime minister is less experienced by nearly four years compared to Andrew Scheer, his main opponent. Finally, since Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minister is from Quebec, no other major party leader is from that the same province. The two minor party, the Bloc Quebecois and the leader of the newly founded People's Party of Canada, have their leaders from Quebec. The provincial origin as a variable takes a value of 0.50 in favor of Liberal Party (Mongrain, 2019).

Voting intentions and model forecasts were also used to estimate the Liberal, incumbent party's percentage of share of seats using a swing ratio, obtained by regressing the popular collected vote on the share to positions collected by the party. According to Mongrain, (2019), the Liberal Party's vote Share per the model stands high at about 41.23% in October vis-a-vis party's seats share at 50.7%. These statistics in variance compare to the remaining margin to be shared by other remaining parties show that the Liberal Party still commands a significant share of the popularity (Mongrain, 2019). So far, the variables discussed still put the Liberal Party in the best possible position to win the upcoming October 2019 election.

References

CBC News. (n.d.). How do the main parties compare on these issues? Canada Votes 2019. Retrieved from: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2019/party-platforms/

Coletta., A. (2019). Canada's Trudeau is down in the polls. Can Conservatives take advantage? The Washington Post. Retrieved from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/canadas-trudeau-is-down-in-the-polls-can-the-conservatives-take-advantage/2019/07/14/33a0bf60-a0bc-11e9-a767-d7ab84aef3e9_story.html

Elections Canada. (n.d.). Demonstrate understanding of the political spectrum. The Electoral System of Canada. Retrieved from: https://bodwell.edu/r_smith/PLO%202.1.html

Mongrain., P. (2019). 2019 Canadian Federal Election - Forecasts for the Incumbent Retrieved from: Partyhttps://www.chairedemocratie.com/2019/08/10/2019-canadian-federal-election-forecasts-for-the-incumbent-party/