The Political Situation in Bahrain - Research Paper Sample

Introduction

The Bahraini population is socially divided along sectarian lines. Close to a third of the population ascribes to Islam's Sunni doctrine, where the other two-thirds belong to the Shia offshoot of Islam. Apart from the fact that the Sunnis are lesser in numbers, they control almost all aspects of the economy. Prominent traders, and resource endowed Arabic tribes in Bahrain are all Sunnis and align themselves with the ruling family (Looney, 2013). Such as situation has deprived the country of a vibrant opposition that can help in checking and balancing the government. The resentful Shia majority claim that Sunni dominance has been supported by nepotism to a point most of the senior government positions are majorly Sunnis. Oxford Analytica (2008) reported that Shias only makes up to three percent of its military and police force.

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Social Classes

The social classes in Bahrain are divided into different categories. The dominant class comprises the ruling Al Khalifah family and its allied tribes, followed by the country's administrative staff, then small traders in urban centers, and an outranked class consisting of informal sector workers, fishermen, and subsistence farmers. Both religious and class conflicts in Bahrain has led to the formation of various coalitions, which in some cases have turned out to be violent. Besides, the country is faced with an increased number of immigrant laborers, rapid oil price fluctuations, and regional instability. Results of all the dynamics had led to a slower pace of development than the one precedent when oil was discovered in the 1920s. Unfortunately for the Bahraini government, these problems are far from being solved, especially because Bahrain's oil reserves are smaller than those of other countries such as Iran and are depleting rapidly. If the government does not streamline various regulatory process and the politics surrounding the resource, which to inefficiencies in revenue distribution, then the country faces an imminent dilemma in the future. Bahrain currently has more extensive indigenous industrial personnel than its gulf counterparts, which means that if the oil issues are not depoliticized, then unemployment will be a huge concern in future. In 2006, Oxford Analytica estimated that 100,000 Bahrainis will enter the job market in the next decade, which means that the economy will need to provide three times more employment opportunities than it is producing now (Oxford Analytica 2006). Thus, the country ought to depoliticize the oil sector as soon as they can to derive the maximum possible revenues from this sector, and rationally invest it in the economy to create other revenue collection avenues.

Research Objectives

This study aims to give a holistic analysis of how Bahrain can improve its economy by depoliticizing and regulating its oil sector. The researcher will first conduct a literature review to investigate the Bahraini oil sector's current practices regarding the policies surrounding this sector and political issues. Besides, the literature review will help to identify gaps that have not been researched before. Therefore, by filling the information gaps identified in the literature review, the researcher will be able to come up with a comprehensive study. Secondly, the researcher will seek to understand the effects of current regulations on the Bahraini oil sector using the existing data and secondary sources. Thirdly, the researcher will compare the current political and oil regulatory situations in Bahrain with states managing their oil revenue better, such as the United Arab Emirates and Oman. Lastly, the researcher will seek to find out various opportunities that the Bahraini government can utilize to ensure that the current situation improves through primary and secondary data. To make use of the data collected, the researcher plans on using both econometrics and machine learning methodologies to establish the extent to which the recommended adjustments can help the country. From this data, the researcher will be able to come up with a comprehensive conclusion on the subject of research.

Research Methodology and Data

The study will collect both qualitative and quantitative data to explore more dynamics in the oil industry. The non-numerical responses will focus on understanding the non-qualitative measures of the course. The researcher will use various models to determine several variables such as;

Oil Depletion

There have been concerns that the global oil reservoirs are slowly being depleted. Therefore, Bahraini reservoirs are not an exception. Before determining the aspects that ought to change in terms of oil policies and politics, it would be beneficial first to determine Bahrain's oil depletion rate so that the researcher's recommendations are time-specific. The study will use the Hubbert curve to determine the country’s oil depletion rate. The model will help the researcher identify various dynamics such as the peak of Bahrain's oil production and when this oil should be expected to be deleted (Hubbert, 1956). Hubbert's econometric model is perceived as the most favorable when predicting resource depletion (Bardi, 2007) since the model successfully predicted the peak years of oil production in the United States. By getting the oil timeline, researcher can give a more practical solution to the problem

Future Oil Prices

Conducting a time series analysis will help the researcher to predict Bahrain's' future revenue in terms of the expected number of barrels produced per day versus their market prices. From this perspective, the researcher would determine if the government's current revenue from oil will increase or reduce, then make the necessary recommendations on how the government can take advantage of the future situation. The study will use the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to establish future oil prices as it has been proved that this model effectively predicts prices in both the short and long term (Singh & Mohapatra, 2019). Besides, Nyangarika & Tang (2018) used the same model to predict global oil prices successfully.

Current Politics

Since there is already published data on various regulation and political decisions on oil production, sale, and revenue dispersion, the study will utilize a Systematic Literature review to examine the relationship between politics, regulations, and oil revenue. The Systematic literature review will involve reviewing peer-reviewed journals and publications from various reputable publishers such as the arms of the United Nations, the World Bank, and the International monetary fund, among others. The methodology will help identify the relevant studies (following the pre-determined inclusion and exclusion criteria), conducting the necessary thematic analysis, and synthesizing the data to establish a conclusion on both the known and the unknown effects. Compared to other methods of analyzing secondary data such as content analysis, Systematic Literature reviews provide a more rigorous and more precise review process using various procedures that ensure comprehensiveness, authenticity, and reliability (Xiao & Watson, 2019). With respect to the subject in focus that calls for the researcher's information to be as reliable as possible to give precise results to policymakers and future researchers, a systematic literature review would be essential in mitigating these challenges.

Opportunities on Depoliticizing

For the researcher to determine the extent to which Bahrain can depoliticize and regulate its oil sector to maximize its revenue, the researcher will collect primary data from various stakeholders within Bahrain. In this case, the targeted respondents include policymakers and stakeholders in the oil sector, such as exporters. Since the study needs informed respondents to answer the survey questions, the researcher will use purposive sampling. The sampling procedure will allow the researcher to get the most experienced and competent respondents for collecting the necessary data (Etikan et al., 2016). Besides, the researcher focuses on getting informed participants who are experts in policymaking in the oil industry and can help answer the study questions. Purposive sampling will enable the study to select a small percentage of the population who will be most qualified to represent the larger group's representational views.

Conclusion

The researcher will have to seek the necessary permits to conduct undertake the necessary surveys and ensure that all the ethical issues are observed as recommended by Campbell & Groundwater-Smith (2007). Besides, the researcher will ensure that the questionnaire used is reliable and capable of giving authentic results. Thus, the research tools will be first piloted to a smaller sample of the population. Their responses recorded from the pilot study, will enable the researcher to calculate the Cronbach's alpha value to determine the questionnaire's reliability. Smith (2004) advises that a reliable research tool should have a score of 0.6 and above in Cronbach alpha analysis. Analyzing the data generated from this tool will call for the use of the Machine Learning technique such as descriptive, regressions, correlation and forecast analysis.