Research Paper on China and Taiwan: Reunification Efforts Through Peace and Force

Introduction

China has decided to have reunification with Taiwan through threatening Taiwan with force while seeking peaceful reunification. Taiwan has been a self-governed and independent region from China since 1949, though it has never declared independence from mainland China. Taiwan has been running on self-governed democracy since China's nationalist government was overpowered by the Taiwan community forces. China efforts to reunify with Taiwan have been triggered by the achievement of pro-independence Democratic Progressive party in 2016 which made Taiwan have its own president (Irish Times, 2019). Also, despite the president of China having a meeting with the president of Taiwan Ma Ying in Singapore before the presidential elections, the meeting never bore any fruit as the Taiwan president could not accept the Mr. Xi reunification views. This triggered Mr. Xi to declare a forceful reunification to have Taiwan back. Before the issuance of the threat, China made all possible actions to reserve Taiwan without the use of threats or manipulation. The president of both regions held a meeting to peacefully resolve the Taiwan issue but it never bore any positive fruits. China has been making efforts to influence the Taiwan election to smother the existence of the Taiwan independence-leaning parties and politicians. This makes the situation worth to be solved through execution of threats only. Consequently, Chinese president Xi Jinping is seeking to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. Mr. Xi has asserted the people of Taiwan will have to accept that they will be controlled and reunited with China by emphasizing that it must and will be.

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The argumentation will be based on the quote "Chinese president Xi Jinping insisted during his speech that China reserves the right to use force to bring Taiwan to heel - but that peaceful "reunification" would be Beijing's goal. Xi has made resolving the "Taiwan issue" a priority" (Durden, 2019). In his speech, Mr. Xi ascertains the Taiwanese people that they will be secure because the peaceful reunification will be achieved with the use of greatest sincerity and hard work. He also brings some contradiction by claiming that they do not promise to renounce the use of foreign forces. MR Xi claimed that China was ready to talk with any political party in Taiwan to be one China entity since he wants positive benefits for the residents. He said that the reunification will bring lasting peace on Taiwan. Also, the province will have great motherland support, have better welfare, have better development space, and lead good and prosperous lives (Blancard, 2019). The president argued that Taiwan and China reunification is an inevitable requirement for the great rejuvenation of all the Chinese people. Since Taiwan has not had any official separation or its own independence to be considered as an entity country, it is still under China's politics and governance by the China legal right system. Therefore, as Mr. Xi claims, it is noble that such foreign interference is intolerable. However, after the Xi threat speech, Tsai, the Taiwan president rejected the threat and urged China to embrace democracy.

Five Conditions for an Effective Threat

Jon Hovi describes an effective threat as a threat that causes the target to change its behavior, practices, or actions in accordance with threatener's desires. His definition of effective threat is governed by five conditions that must be fulfilled for a threat to be considered as an effective threat.

Relevant

First, for a threat to be considered as effective it must be relevant. This implies that the threat can have an impact on the outcome. The target should have some freedom of action to enable the targets to adjust their policy in the direction or on the issue described by the threatener. In the China-Taiwan case, Taiwan has some freedom to fight back for the reunification and remain independent. If Taiwan could have no option other than adhere to China desires, there could be no relevance in the threat since there is no impact of the Taiwan behavior. Also, the target should have an incentive to act contrary to the threats that it is being subjected to. Taiwan has political leaders and activists promoting the separation of Taiwan from the mainland and being granted its own independence and legal system (Independent, 2019).

The reunification threat is a relevant threat since Taiwanese residents are in support of the reunification through having a Taiwanese public opinion that supports the "one country, two systems' nation (Chung, 2019). Some residents support the 'one country two systems' Taiwan motion while the leaders, political parties, and other Taiwanese residents (Chung, 2019). This shows that Taiwan, the target, is backed by some residents and leaders, thus, having an inducement to act contrary to the threateners desires. Also, the relevance of the effective threat is portrayed by the Taiwanese acting contrary to the China threat desires due to the economic and legal system gains they gain from having a different system from China. If Taiwan had no backing up the motivation of gains or inducement, there could be no essence of threatening the province. The threat has a goal since there are gains that China will have from the threat.

Severe

Second, for a threat to be considered an effective threat, it must be severe enough to make a difference to the target. The severity of the threat should make that target have some dilemma in choosing whether to comply with the threateners demands or defy the demands and face the threat. The severity of China's threat is that it will be taken over and controlled centrally from the China mainland. The severity of the threat is dependent on both the magnitude of the defying outcomes and the uncertainty or modest level of the threats. If there is certainty of successful threatening, then the demands are not sufficiently modest. In reference to the China-Taiwan case, China's demand has less severity since it has guaranteed that the reunification will be peaceful. However, the severity of the threat is portrayed by the fact that if Taiwan adhered to China's demands, it will have to lose its 70 years independent like the legal system, lose its freedom, its political systems, its economic gains, and its governance. Moreover, though Mr. Xi has promised that the threat will be executed through peaceful means, Taiwan might comply due to the fear of being attacked by the might China militaries. The use of the military might turn the reunification action to involve war and harassment if Taiwan fails to comply with the threats. Thus, there is severity in that China has promised to use all possible means to have Taiwan back. If the Taiwanese residents fight back or fail to surrender to China, the situation may threaten the existence of the Taiwan community. Moreover, if all possible peaceful means are exhausted and still Taiwan has not surrendered, it may turn out to be a cold-war. The Taiwanese residents may consider supporting China in the reunification because they are aware of the severe consequences associated with having Taiwan independence. They knew that independence would lead to a grave disaster which is likely to occur if Taiwan leadership fail to surrender to China desires. Also, the Taiwanese residents know that the public is always vulnerable when it comes to such situations since they are the oneness to face the effects of war if it erupts.

Taiwan is vulnerable to the demands since China is the biggest trade partner with China taking over 30% of its exports. If China decides to withdraw that trade links, Taiwan will consequently lose its economic growth and eventually will have to accept Chinese sovereignty over the island (Buckley & Horton, 2019). Moreover, the severity of the situation is enhanced by the fact that in the past the most possible peaceful reunification of peaceful negotiations between the president of Taiwan and China bore no fruit. This leaves little or no effective peaceful measure to resolve the issue. Thus, the likeliness that the reunification may involve war, harassment, and use of military enhances the severity of the situation. The use of forceful means to fight back any external force that tries to get into the reunification portrays the severity of the matter. The target, Taiwan, should view the peaceful reunification as something to cover up the threat. This is because if the external forces and the Taiwanese merge to fight back China, it will consequently result in the war despite the claim that war is going to be peaceful (Jiangtao, 2019). Fighting back the external forces might make Taiwan have demonstrations or even make non-Taiwanese residents be harassed by the Taiwanese nationality.

Credibility

Third, an effective threat should have credibility. This implies that the target should believe that the threatener could possibly execute the threat demands. In the China-Taiwan case, there is credibility in that China still has the right to reserve and control Taiwan since it has never officially separated from its mainland and also since it lacks its own independence. Further, there is credibility in that the threat will be executed since Mr. Xi asserts that 'it must be and will be' and that China will utilize all possible means to bring Taiwan under its control. Also, the credibility is portrayed by the fact that the threat words were spoken by the President, a power China leader. President Xi stands as the most powerful leader since the Mao due to his extraordinary call for national rejuvenation. Serving as the chairman of the central military commission and the general secretary of the Communists Party of China, his power and authority will make the reunification strategy a success. His authoritative words of China must be and will be reunited will silence the reunification opposing party leaders and the activists against the reunification.

Jovi also asserts that the credibility of an effective threat is dependent on the threatener's incentives. China has a goal of reunifying Taiwan with China to have national rejuvenation and control the Taiwan's economic benefits from the mainland. This motivation is sufficient enough to make the threat to be considered as having credibility. If China lacked objectives of seizing Taiwan in its threat, then there could have lacked credibility and consequently, the threat would turn out to be an ineffective threat. The credibility of a threat is enhanced by what the threateners capability and preferences are. China as the capability and the right to reserve Taiwan, and even control and take charge of all the economic benefits and activities of Taiwan. Also, China's major preference is creating a nation rejuvenation for the Chinese people. A threat that lacks complete information lacks credibility or uncertainty of the threateners' capabilities and incentives can make the threat to be considered as not rational, thus creating credibility. Considering that China has already begun to utilize its right to reserve Taiwan through controlling airlines and hotels to be named under China and Taiwan shows the seriousness and the credibility of the threat.

Further, the fact that Taiwan is a small island community compared to the economic and diplomatic might power of the mainland, the possibility of the threat to be executed and de successful is high (BBC News, 2019). Comparing the small nationality of Taiwan and the larger might China, Taiwan ought to surrender even before the execution occurs. This can make Taiwan willingly accept to be reunited before the execution of threat because it believes it has little power and capability to fight back and object China's reunification demand. The threat words are in line with the China policy regarding reunificat...