Realism: Power Takes Precedence Over Economics - Essay Sample

Introduction

The basic idea in realism is the issue of power in international relations. The struggle for power has higher priority over economic considerations. Realists can opt to sacrifice financial gains in a bid to weaken the opponents. Realists base their belief on the notion that nation-states are pursuing power in the international arena, and they shape their economies towards the same end (Frieden & Lake, 2003). The theory of realism holds that nation-states are rational actors who operate following the cost-benefit analysis and therefore go for the option that yields the most significant value. The concept of hegemonic stability posits that free exchange of capital, goods and services is only possible when there is a single and dominant hegemonic power to stabilize the system and also construct a stable regime. In the international network of anarchy, a state is forced to depend on its national resources for its protection, and thereby the more powerful a nation is, the safer it can be.

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The United States and China are currently waging a trade war against each other. It all began in 2017 when the United States started a survey to establish whether Chinese companies were violating intellectual rights on the property of United States firms. The Chinese government responded by issuing a suspension on $3 billion of goods from the United States to attain a balance (Qiu et al., 2019). The Chinese and the United States government agreed not to issue tariffs on imports from either country and to also work towards reducing the bilateral trade deficit.

Predictions by Realists

The realist would propose that even after the two countries reached an agreement not to tax each other one of the countries would still move ahead to disobey such an arrangement. The realist's belief that nation-states develop foreign policies that will advance the national interests and that there lacks an international body that can successfully control the conduct of nations (Frieden & Lake, 2003). Therefore, China or the United States would not hesitate to introduce more taxes if doing so will advance the national interests. Another prediction of a realist at such an early stage of a trade war between two most potent world powers is that the strive will last for a prolonged period even though it might mean sacrificing the economic considerations of either country. As China continually threatens the United States hegemony, then China-United States competition for who becomes the more powerful actor can only intensify with time (Frieden & Lake, 2003). Both the United States and China are led by realistic politicians, and they are aware that the more powerful their economies are, the safer they are in the international arena.

Correctness of Predictions

The United States was the first country to ignore the agreement with China by going ahead to impose 25 per cent of tariffs on exports worth 50 billion dollars from China. China in retaliation-imposed tariffs on 25 per cent of sorghum, aircraft and soybeans from the United States. Events unraveled in the manner that realists would expect (Qiu, Zhan & Wei, 2019). United States is a rational country, interested in maintaining its single predominant power in the world which is so much threatened by China economic pursuits in the past. Therefore, the United States had to make attempts to control China though the same would result in a trade war with devastating economic impacts in the country. The realists expect that gaining power in the international arena is more of a priority over protecting a country's economy. The trade war has left both parties to the trade war worse off. It has contributed to a sharp decline in bilateral trade, among other effects such as high prices for consumers (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2019. Customers from the United States are even bearing the most substantial burden as the tariffs on imports from China are passed down to them in the form of high commodity prices.

What Realists Did Not Get Right

The realists thought that the trade war would last for a prolonged period, but it is evident that war is almost coming to an end, particularly due to trade diversions. The United States tariffs on Chinese products have promoted the success of other international players in the U.S market. Taiwan, a province in China, has gained an additional $4.2 billion of exports to the United States during the first quarter of 2019 (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2019). Other countries that have increased exports to the United States include Mexico, Vietnam and the European Union. With time the agenda of the trade war may be solved by the market forces making the United States less dependent on China.

References

Frieden, J. & Lake, D. (2003). International political economy: Perspectives on global power and wealth. 4th edition. New York: Routledge.

Qiu, L., Zhan, C. & Wei, X. (2019). An analysis of the China-US trade war through the lens of the trade literature. Economic and Political Studies, 7(2), 148-168.

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2019). Trade war leaves both US and China worse off. https://unctad.org/en/pages/newsdetails.aspx?OriginalVersionID=2226