Polls, Surveys and the Public Essay

Polling involves the collection of information which comprises of asking a single question with multiple choice answers which will prompt the person to answer with their personal opinion, beliefs, and attitudes. In a survey carried out by Real Clear Politics on the United States president Donald Trump in order to gauge his popularity, job approval, and congressional race. From the survey, it can be noted that there were eleven complete surveys on Trump's job approval that was done by the different polls from different institutions.

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From the different institutions an average value for the approval and disapproval was drawn out, the findings indicated that there was a 42.2% disapproval on average from all the polls and a 54.1% disapproval. This indicated that most Americans were not in favor of Trump's fitness for office. The spread was 11.9 on average from all the polls carried out.

The different institutions that were involved in the polling activity include; ABC News, The Economist, IPSOS, FOX news among others. The methodology used by most of these institutions are sampling and interviewing since they are the most common and effective means of polling and survey. During sampling, a random number of individuals are picked via both mobile phones and landlines as they are asked to participate in the survey. Those willing to participate are first checked for their viability as to whether their present condition may affect their behavior or attitude, for example, driving or drinking.

The use of telephones is sampled to ensure a proportionate size method in a random dial procedure. The number of phone calls per state in both landline and mobile phones was taken according to the size of registered voters from the respective states. Interviewing was also done on the same basis as sampling with the interviews carried out on the phones or randomly selected individuals on the streets. The data from these methods is weighted to account for the greater probability of respondents from which is obtained using the demographic information from the census.

The type of questions asked during the polling procedure is of importance since they may influence the type of response given by the respondents. Since sampling is a representation of the larger population, the type of questions during the survey may vary depending on the age of the samples, their state and the language used in asking the questions. In most cases, the questions asked shapes the answers received and the language used in the survey conversation should be general and bias-free. The type of questions asked in this particular survey include; Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? The question, however, does not state why the respondent gave the answer hence it is difficult to tell whether the response is sincere or influenced by certain social or psychological effects.

During the carrying out of the survey, the number of participants should be larger compared to those taken by the above-mentioned institutions of polling. At least six thousand participants in each poll should be considered during carrying out of the survey. The larger the sample the more precise the survey since a systematic error can be generated from such data. Although this might be expensive and time-consuming, it will achieve accurate results that may be used in the prediction of future presidential polls and to tell the feelings and attitudes of the citizens towards their administration. If these factors could be changed, then the polling activity would deliver more precise results that require minimal adjustments.

The weaknesses of the poll could be further discussed since the method suffers from self-censorship. This occurs when the population will want to alter the results of the poll by giving false remarks and answers during the activity. This is characterized by the fact that the population could have been paid or the question asked may have a fixed number of multiple choices that will prompt the respondent to answer in a particular manner. A selection bias may also occur during the survey whereby an intentional selection of people is taken with similar or random opinions which may not be as effective.

Conclusion

However, the polling activity is one of the best information collection tools and can be used over a wide range of the population. The majority opinion over Trump's job approval could be determined without an actual election. The randomness of the activity during the collection of the information about the president increases the levels of potential accuracy in the activity hence making polling effective compared to other means.

References

Blumenthal, M. (2014). Polls, forecasts, and aggregators. PS: Political Science & Politics, 47(2), 297-300.

Kennedy, C., Blumenthal, M., Clement, S., Clinton, J. D., Durand, C., Franklin, C., ... & Saad, L. (2018). An evaluation of the 2016 election polls in the United States. Public Opinion Quarterly, 82(1), 1-33.

Huff, C., & Tingley, D. (2015). "Who are these people?" Evaluating the demographic characteristics and political preferences of MTurk survey respondents. Research & Politics, 2(3), 2053168015604648.

Asher, H. (2016). Polling and the public: What every citizen should know. Cq Press.

Pasek, J. (2015). Predicting elections: Considering tools to pool the polls. Public Opinion Quarterly, 79(2), 594-619.