Paper Sample on Modelling & Simulation: A Tool for Optimising Systems & Minimising Risks

The technique of modelling and simulation is used in various fields to improve the efficiency and minimise risks of using systems, and equipment to facilitate the identification of problems, and guiding problem-solving initiatives. Decision-makers depend on simulations to see the weaknesses in systems and determine reliable solutions. Businesses utilise simulation models to streamline their operations and minimise losses. The traffic and transportation systems rely on simulations to understand what causes pertinent problems to improve the management of movement on the roads. For instance, understanding human behaviour reveals why drivers act the way they do and their contribution to traffic. Safety is a critical aspect in all areas of life, and computerised simulations are used to identify the risks and suggest the appropriate mitigation (Leveson, 2004). For instance, simulations help to establish the magnitude of a pending tornado to prepare the people at risk (Strader, Pingel, & Ashley, 2016). Also, the military relies on the modelling and simulations to test and validate their weapons, naval ships, and aircraft, among other equipment within controlled environments (Iyengar, Hargett, & Hargett, 1999). Similarly, the field of healthcare the computerised simulations provides knowledge on the cause of illnesses or unhealthy behaviours and help in determining the appropriate interventions. The simulations may be expensive to design and run, but they help in providing accurate data that is used for decision making and taking action.

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Introduction

Modelling and simulation are techniques used to substitute physical experimentation by using computers to determine the results of a phenomenon under study. Modelling and simulation are applied for behavioural analysis in various fields, which include policy and decision making, traffic and transportation, safety, military, and healthcare. The results from modelling and simulation in the respective situations are used to take action with minimal risk and in a cost-effective manner. Therefore, the essay shall focus on the impact of modelling and simulation in behaviour analysis in the following fields.

Applications of Modelling and Simulation for Behaviour Analysis in Policy and Decision-Making

Decision making is a critical and dynamic process and involves analysing various options for taking action and identifying the best options that will lead to the desired outcomes. Decision making facilitates problem resolution by helping the decision-makers identify weaknesses in a system and design solutions (Ligtenberg et al., 2004). For instance, enterprises, face different problems each day and have to design effective solutions with urgency to avoid disruption of their operations. Fortunately, technological advancement has introduced ways that can aid enterprises to make reliable decisions for challenges they experience in a controlled environment. The simulations of business process is a useful tool used in the analysis of the business operations and provide ideas for continuous improvement (Davis, Eisenhardt, & Bingham, 2007). The effectiveness of simulations lies on its ability to mimic the behaviours of various systems and monitor their potential outcomes based on predetermined conditions. There are different modelling and simulation techniques used by enterprises in the decision-making processes, and one of them is the root cause analysis model. The root cause analysis model answer the question of why the problem occurred by identifying the gaps or origin of the problem. The technique has steps that are used in the simulations to monitor the behaviours in a system by identifying loopholes (Ramadan, Ajami, Mohamed, & Lazarova-Molnar, 2015). The built-in models could repeatedly be performed various system's analysis and guide decision-makers. The preference of the simulation technique is due to its convenience in the application as compared to the analytic options. The simulation relies on generated data, which is cheaper to access as compared to the one resulting from the real system. Thus, it makes it easier to predict the occurrence of a systems problem before it occurs and facilitate the designing of mitigation measures (Orta & Ruiz, 2014). The simulation helps in estimation performance and evaluating the impacts of the changes that may occur to the operation parameters of the system at the workplace. Thus, modelling and simulation work as a warning and problem-solving system, used by the decision-makers.

Applications of Modelling and Simulation for Behaviour Analysis in Traffic and Transportation

Studies have revealed that the construction of more roads is not exactly the solution to smooth transportation or the solution to congested traffic (Papageorgiou et al., 2009). The reason for this situation is linked to various dynamics such as driver's behaviours, road geometry, vehicles, and traffic signs, among others. However, the use of technology through simulations could facilitate the evaluations of the traffic conditions. The modelling and simulation help to assess the current problem, analyse traffic, and suggest practical solutions. Traffic simulation helps in the planning of transportation and decision-making processes in the management of traffic (Papageorgiou, 2006). The modelling and simulation for the traffic and transportation guides in the design solutions that are tested and perfected virtually. The process is useful since it could be accomplished by a person sitting in an office at the comfort of a computer without disrupting the traffic or requiring field trials (Zhang, McHale, & Zhang, 2003). The field of traffic and transportation through modelling and simulation have developed various mathematical theories to understand the problem on the road due to congestion to create lasting solutions. For instance, the traffic stream characteristics theory focuses on elements such as flow, speed, and concentration (Koppa, 1996). Another theory is the human factor which focuses on human behaviour and how it contributes to traffic among other problems on the roads. The human theory is crucial as it helps in designing car following models showing how individual drivers in their vehicles follow each other (Park, Won, & Yun, 2006). The human factor models are designed from the stimulus -respond relationship, where the behaviour of the successive drivers in the traffic stream accelerates or decelerates the magnitude of the stimulus (Papageorgiou et al., 2007). The car-following models indicate that traffic is composed of discrete drivers-vehicles units or elements whose interactions influence the behaviours of the drivers, which subsequently impacts the traffic stream and density patterns. Therefore, during modelling and simulation, both individual and a combination of models are used to explain the origin of traffic (Nagel, 1996). The modelling and simulations reveal the patterns of human behaviours that are linked to the state of the traffic stream, which affects transportation activities.

Applications of Modelling and Simulation for Behaviour Analysis in Safety

Safety is a critical focus at home, schools, and work, among other places. Places with more complex systems such as industrial systems pose the greatest safety dangers due to the high propensity to deviate from normal behaviours. The deviations are the source of incidents and accidents that occur (Koelling & Schwandt, 2005). The complexity increases the unpredictability of the systems due to the causal interactions between different elements such as human, technical, and organisational, among others. The Chernobyl and piper alpha, which occurred in 1986 and 1988 respectively are examples of accidents that resulted from technical, human, and organisational factors. With the advancement in technology, those safety challenges can be seen before they occur and prevent by using modelling and simulation for behaviour analysis (Hollnagel, 2008). Systems dynamics is one of these theories that is used during modelling and simulation of the system's structures to help understand the causal interactions between the elements forming complex systems (Bouloiz, Garbolino, Tkiouat, & Guarnieri, 2013). The model allows the system to be represented in terms of feedback and the behaviour of the system. The systems dynamic model shows the structure of feedback and the weaknesses in it that are linked to its dynamic behaviour. It also used to design and analyse a system and simulating its behaviour. Thus, the modelling and simulation of behaviour help in the management of emergencies and crises (Rhodes, 2014). It assists in urban planning activities, risk reduction, raising awareness, and preparing the population at risk in advance (Adam et al., 2016). These are the systems that are used to estimate the impact of hurricanes and tornadoes through simulations before they occur and advice people on safety measures. The results from such simulations are used to influence human behaviours on reactions towards safety issues. For instance, if the simulations show the impact of a hurricane will be tremendous people may take precaution and shift to a safer zone to avoid the aftermath of the occurrence. The simulations are computerised and thus are safe to conduct and with accuracy, they are used to promote safety.

Applications of Modelling and Simulation for Behaviour Analysis in Military

Before the industrial revolution, the development of complex systems was based on results from long trials supported by observations (Cropley & Campbell, 2004). Thus, the architectural flows in such systems were only tested on the finished systems which were costly and disastrous due to the lack of modelling and simulation that could have provided adequate data to influence redesigning for utmost performance. The naval architecture is an example of the design of complex systems that relied on limited theoretical foundation and was affected by the lack of modelling behaviour and performance to assist in revealing the flaws in designs within a safe environment (Kunc, 2016). Mary Rose was an English warship that sunk during the reign of King Henry VIII and was due to design challenges. However, the advance of mathematics in the 18th and 19th centuries supported by improvement in the computerised technology, the design of military ships have been improved. Modelling and simulation have been used to mitigate high risks in the design of complex systems. Currently, examples such as the Collins submarines have become more efficient due to the use of modelling and simulations within a safe environment to deal with combat systems-linked challenges experienced in the submarines. The modelling and simulation technique helps in the design of military aircraft, and nuclear technology is considered critical to avoid in-systems failures.

Moreover, the technique is used in acquisition and planning wars to compare competing ideas and select the most viable that will result to minimise casualties. The development of prototype weapons to measure their effectiveness in controlled environments it the safest way to establish performance and validation of the military weapons (National Research Council, 1998). The modelling and simulation help in the operational support in the diagnosis and repair during system failures.

Applications of Modelling and Simulation for Behaviour Analysis in Healthcare

The healthcare field involves complex systems with interrelated processes with different components (Traore, Zacharewicz, Duboz, & Zeigler, 2019). Understanding the entire system is a challenge for decision-makers in the healthcare field (Basole et al.,...