Paper Example on Independent, Dependent, and Intervening Variables

Introduction

The independent variable in this research is an ineffective electoral system that is used by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to monitor, and ensure that the elections that are conducted in the country are free, and fair. The dependent variable in this research is the violent post-election incidents that are witnessed in various parts of the country after every general election in the country. The intervening variables in this study is tribalism and inciting statements from the politicians that exist between different communities in the country. For instance, after the 1992 General Elections there were tribal clashes between the Kalenjin targeting Kikuyus, Luhyas, and Luos. In 2007, there were post-election violence between the Kikuyus and Kalenjins in the Rift Valley region, and Kikuyus and Luos in different parts of Nairobi. Politicians are believed to have played a key role in instigating these forms of violence that have been witnessed after the different general elections that have been conducted in the country.

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Justification of the Variables

The reasons as to why I have perceived the independent, dependent, and intervening variables as such is as follows:

Ineffective electoral system is considered to be the independent variable because its variation is not influenced by any of the other variables that I have selected for this study. It is also the predictor variable that can be changed or manipulated to test the dependent variable (post-election violence) in this study. As a researcher, I believe that in future, if the country has an effective electoral system that cannot be manipulated, and therefore lead to transparency and fairness of the election process then there will be no cause of violence.

Violent post-election incidents is the dependent variable in this research. Looking at the history of democratic general elections in Kenya, one can be able to deduce that after every election that has been perceived as unfair there was violent incidents.

Tribalism and incitement statements from the politicians is the intervening variable in this study. The reason for this is that although the general elections in Kenya have in the past not been conducted in a free and fair manner, with the exception of the 2002 elections, violence has been instigated by tribal differences, and inciting statements by the politicians over a certain community. If tribal differences and inciting statements from politicians did not exist, I believe the Kenyan citizens would have resolved to violence against each other based on community backgrounds. Therefore, I developed the following conceptual framework in relation to this research.

Figure 1: Conceptual Framework Illustrating Post-Election Violence as A Result of Ineffective Electoral System

Problem Statement

Kenya has experienced post-election violence in each of its general elections (with the exception of the 2002 general elections). This is despite implementing most of the recommendations provided by international and local observers after every election process. This study will aim to assess how the failure of the country's election system has contributed to post-election violence in Kenya. The main factor that has resulted in violence after general elections in the country has been due to a weak electoral system. A majority of the citizens have little or no faith with the oversight measures that have been put in place to ensure that there is a free and fair election process in the country. It is important to point out that post-election violence is as a result of the following factors: a weak electoral system, the strength of democracy in a country, the position of large ethnic groups or coalitions of the main ethnic groups in relation to power, and economic inequality in a country. All these four factors are existing in the country, and therefore in order to prevent future post-election violence, some if not all of these factors have to be resolved.

The reason why there are no free and fair election processes in a majority of African countries such as Kenya is that; the formal electoral rules are controlled by informal institutions, which increase the stakes of the election. In these countries, politics is dominated by patron-client relationships whereby the political candidates reward their supporters with cash, access to jobs, land, economic empowerment, and infrastructure development. This means that political power results in economic benefits for the politicians, their families, and ethnic kin. There is the need to increase the independence of the IEBC, and reduce the power of the politicians in young democracies. At the moment they (the politicians) have a lot to gain or lose depending on whether they win or lose an election process.

The best approach to start dealing with post-election violence in the country is by implementing an electoral system that cannot be easily manipulated. This will lead to the elections process being conducted in a free and fair process. It is also important to point out that most of the ethnic coalitions are centered on power greediness by a few of the politicians from the main ethnic tribes in the country. Therefore, there is the need to reduce the influence of tribalism during elections. It will contribute to less incidences of violence as voters will use the manifesto of leaders instead of their surnames to elect a leader. The country should place a high focus on political debates as they provide the citizens with the opportunity to assess and determine the leadership capability of the political contestants in different positions.

The reason why I believe that my research proposal is the best is that it focuses on key issues that have led to post-election violence in Kenya i.e. a weak electoral system, political incitement, and tribalism. It also provides adequate solutions to this problem such as ensuring that the IEBC has more powers to deal with political discrepancies. In addition to that, it also advocates for the powers of politicians to be reduced to increase the servitude aspect of their duties. This will reduce the aspect of rewarding and punishing various communities in relation to the support level that they provided those in power. It also reduces the stakes for those who will win or lose elections and therefore reduce their likelihood of inciting their supporters to attack people from the communities of their rivals.

General Objective

In this study it will identify the existing problems of the current electoral system and the reforms that can be implemented to ensure that the IEBC is able to oversee a free and fair election process in order to reduce incidents of post-election violence.

Specific Objectives

To provide recommendations of the solutions to the existing problems that have been identified in the current electoral system and IEBC in terms of overseeing and conducting free and fair elections.

To illustrate that the aspect of power struggle by politicians in the country is the main contributor to post-election violence.

To determine how the formation of consolidating democratic institutions will reduce the possibility of election violence in the country.

Provide recommendations that can be implemented by the legislature in order to reduce the powers of the politicians in the country, and implement new and tough laws against post-election violence offences (the country needs to implement 'tough' laws against culprits-inciters and people who participate in the different acts of violence).

Theories that Will Be Used in This Research

Democratic Theory of Peace

In this theory, it represents the notion that normally democracies are hesitant to engage in armed conflict with other identified democracies. It, therefore, dissuades state-sponsored violence (Tomiz and Weeks, 2013) This theory underscores that peace and democracy co-exist, and such when one is lacking, then the other cannot exist.

Conflict Theory

In this theory, it makes the assumption that life will rarely run in a smooth manner and therefore conflict is considered to be a natural part of the social relationships. In this case, conflict is considered to be a way of assuming social change, a notion to generate group solidarity, and also it ensures social stability. (Crossman, 2017). In this study, for instance, the researcher will use conflict theory to show that a country's stability and peace is threatened if the incumbent government conducts election malpractices in order to remain in power, even when a majority of the citizens are opposed to their leadership.

Theory of Change

In this theory, it provides a reflection in relation to change and how it takes place. Looking at this theory from a political context in a democratic country, one can postulate that the citizens assume that when they go to elect a leader of their choice in a presidential election, then their choice in terms of a leader will be declared the winner in that elections (Coryn, et al, 2010).

Rational Choice Theory

In this theory, it makes the assumption that people choose a certain course of action because it is in line with their personal preferences. It is used to explain the decision-making process of different people. In this theory, it normally describes an unchanging set of preference in relation to the conceivable global outcomes (Hindess, 2014) In this study, therefore, will show that in an election, the citizens make a rational decision in order to elect a leader of their own choice or preference.