Variables on the Stock Values - Paper Example

Introduction

Run one will be assumed to be the starting point against which the effects are going to be compared. The four stock variables in the model that need to be observed are susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered. The variables that are going to be changed will be infectivity, contact rate infectious and average incubation rate. The average illness rate remains constant throughout the different runs. The objective of this analysis is to look at the differences and the effect of changing the variables from low to high.

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In the second run, the infectivity rate is changed from 0.6 to 0.9 with the following results. The susceptible goes down from 0.16 to 0.002, and the exposed number rises from 5.824 to 70.164 which is by a margin of about 2500%. The infectious also goes up from 177.011 to 851.514 which is almost by 5005. The recovered figure has a significantly small change which is a decrease from 9,817.32 to 9,078.32 which is a small effect.

The third run has the infectivity reducing from 0.9 to 0.6 and the contact rate infectious also reducing from 1.25 to 1.00 which is a decrease in both variables. This is not significant for this analysis because it is a reduction in both of them.

The fourth run has the infectivity increasing from 0.6 to 0.9 with the following results for the affected variables. The changes from run 3 to run 4 are the ones to be considered, but because the diagram that is supposed to give these clear figures is not there, then it follows that approximations have to be made from the tables.

From run 4 to run 5 the infectivity has changed from 0.9 to 0.6 which is a reduction and the contact rate infectious rate is changing from 1.00 to 1.25 and the incubation time is changing from 10 to 20. These have the following effects on the stock values which are the susceptible moving from 0.02 to 0.17 which represents an increase. The exposed, infectious and recovered have the following changes 10.233 to 18.632, 259.143 to 220.821 and 9,730.505 to 9,760.376 respectively. All these variables represent some changes with the exposed almost doubling, the infectious reducing by about 15% and the recovered increasing by a significantly small amount.

From run 5 to run 6 the following changes are observed in the variables: infectivity changes from 0.6 to 0.9 which is an increase whereas the others remain constant. This has the following effect on the stock values: the susceptible value decreases from 0.17 to 0.001, the exposed increases four times or by a factor of about 400% from 18.632 to 74.013, the infectious increases by almost two times which is from 220.821 to 597.002 and the recovered changes by a small factor from 9,760.376 to 9,730.606.

From run 6 to run 7 the following changes were noted in the variables as infectivity being from 0.9 to 0.6 and 1.25 to 1.00 which are all of the reductions. Hence since this is not an increase, then it is not to be analyzed as it is beyond the scope of our interest.

From run 7 to run 8 the following figures were observed as 0.6 to 0.9 for infectivity, but the rest of the variables remain constant. This has an effect of the following o the stock values: the susceptible reduces by about 99% from 1.828 to 0.017, exposed reduces from 44.527 to 10.614, infectious reduces from 390.822 to 149.632 and the recovered increases from 9,562.823 to 9,839.737.

There were various changes in the respective variables, but the infectivity had several instances of increases. The contact rate infectious had one instance where it increased, and this was in the change from the fourth to the fifth runs with the rest either being constant or giving a reduction. The average incubation rate also had a single instance of an increase from the fourth to the fifth runs and no changes in the other runs. Therefore the only variable that had notable changes in some instances was the infectivity. This implies that most of the changes were as a result of the change in resistivity.

Conclusion

It is imperative to note the effect of these variables on the stock values. When there was an increase in the infectivity rate, there was a significant decrease in the susceptible and the increase in the exposed and infectious. The recovered stock value decreases. Hence it can be said that when the infectivity increases it leads to an increase in exposed and infectious and a decrease in susceptible and recovered stock values. It was only in the fourth and fifth runs that there was an increase in the contact rate infections and the average incubation time. The result was an increase in susceptible, exposed and recovered. The only stock value that reduced is infectious. The infectivity rate ended up making the exposed to change by a big margin as compared to the others. The recovered is the only figure that had minute changes compared to the rest.