Company Estimating Consumer Demand w/ Collective Opinion Method - Essay Sample

Introduction

The method is used by a company to directly estimating the consumer demand of a product in the short-run, say a year. The technique requires questioning of the prospective buyers through the end-use method, sample survey method, and complete enumeration method on what they desire to purchase in the coming period. Thus, the survey of buyers' intention burden of demand forecasting depends on the consumers' judgment.

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Collective Opinion Method

In this method, the company's salesperson projects the potential expected sales in their area. After which the company aggregates the salespersons' forecasts to determine the expected cumulative potential revenue (Schaer et al., 2019). The collective opinion method is simple and does not involve quantitative calculations since it focuses on first-hand experiences of the marketers and the person personally involved in the transaction.

Trend Projection

A company uses a trend project method for time series analysis. Companies use the least square method to visualizing or statistically fill the trend line. The trend projection method expects an analyst to tender a logical algebraic relationship between variable time independent on one side and transactions on the other side. Trend projection is beneficial since it is simple, in-depth and often exhibits a persistent growth trend due to time series data.

Executive Judgment Method

The method involves a company review and obtaining of various discipline executives, for instance, productivity and accounting. The executive judgmental method incorporates integrating, measuring, analyzing the thoughts and viewpoints of company seniors in multiple ways (Schaer et al., 2019). The technique is beneficial since it is relatively cheap and enables an organization to make a quick prediction by evaluating the senior official views and opinions.

Experts Opinion

The method entails a company obtaining opinions from professionals in the sector, beyond the company or from reviewing and reading a business magazine. After a company acquires the information, it is analyzed to determine the best-forecasted consumer demands (Schaer et al., 2019). The method is cost-effective since data are gathered by the survey method, and even the cost of finding professional advice is relatively cheap.

Statistical Methods

The method is empirical, dependable, and bias-free and incorporates the use of regression analysis and trend projection method. A company uses the trend method when it has an adequate amount of accrued past revenue records. On the other hand, a company uses the regression analysis when it desires to create a relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable (Schaer et al., 2019). The method is beneficial since it provides an accurate finding on the forecasted consumer demand, and also it is less costly when compared to the other demand forecasting methods.

Analyze the impact on the organization of forecasting and inventory strategies from both a manufacturing and service perspective.

Forecasting and inventory strategy used by organizations ensures customer satisfaction. The company will have the necessary resources for the production of Resin, and this provides an organized operation in the company. Also, forecasting and inventory strategy prevents overselling and stock-outs of Resin since it enable the company to know the appropriate time to make an order for Resin. Moreover, forecasting and inventory strategies lower the company storage fees as it encourages a company to order the product it requires (Ren et al., 2019). The use of forecasting and inventory strategies by the company improves resin pricing and the company understands of better promotional networks.

Identify and describe how the chosen forecasting method will improve the purchasing of Resin and meet the goal of 96% on-time deliveries.

The best technique that the company should implement in Hangzhou, China, is the Trend project. The method will improve the purchase of Resin by first identifying the parts where the company is performing well in the market. Thereby I will duplicate the success to meet the demand and increase sales.

The trend project forecasting method will meet the goal of 96% on-time delivery by determining the speed at which Resin is distributed in the market. The trend project forecasting method uses the information on the areas where Resin is distributed in the future supply. For instance, when Hangzhou, China, the storm is moving at a speed of 250 miles per day, and it is on the 1000 miles west (Ren et al., 2019). Then mathematically, it gives (1000 miles/250 miles per day), which equals four days. Therefore, the company can improve its delivery percentage to up to 96% by determining the weather system in Hangzhou, China, and supply Resin when the temperature is conducive and favorable.

References

Ren, S., Chan, H., & Siqin, T. (2019). Demand forecasting in retail operations for fashionable products: Methods, practices, and real case study. Annals of Operations Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-019-03148-8

Schaer, O., Kourentzes, N., & Fildes, R. (2019). undefined. International Journal of Forecasting, 35(1), 197-212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.03.005